Untitled Essay Research Paper Fiction Fantasy and get essay help Statistics

Untitled Essay, Research Paper

Fiction, Fantasy, and Fact: ” The Mad Scramble for the Elusive Silver Bullet. . . and the Clock Ticks Away. “ Wayne Anderson

November 7, 1996

The twelvemonth 2000 is practically around the corner, assuring a new epoch of illustriousness and

admiration. . . every bit long as you don & # 8217 ; t have a computing machine or work with one. The twelvemonth 2000 is

conveying a

Pandora & # 8217 ; s Box of gifts to the computing machine universe, and the latch is easy coming undone.

The twelvemonth 2000 bug is non truly a “ bug ” or “ virus, ” but is more a

computing machine industry

error. Many of the PC & # 8217 ; s, mainframes, and package out there are non designed or

programmed to calculate a future twelvemonth stoping in dual nothing. This is traveling to be a dearly-won

“ hole ”

for the industry to absorb. In fact, Mike Elgan who is the editor of Windows Magazine,

says “ . .

. the job could be concerns a sum of $ 600 billion to rectify. ” ( p. 1 )

The false belief that mainframes were the lone machines to be affected was short lived as

industry

realized that 60 to 80 million place and little concern users making math or accounting etc.

on

Windows 3.1 or older package, are merely as susceptible to this “ bug. ” Can this

be repaired in

clip? For some, it is already excessively late. A system that is devised to cut an one-year federal

shortage to

0 by the twelvemonth 2002 is already in “ hot H2O. ” Data will go erroneous as the

Numberss “ merely

Don & # 8217 ; t add up ” any longer. Some Personal computer proprietors can upgrade their computing machine & # 8217 ; s BIOS ( or finish

operating system ) and upgrade the OS ( runing system ) to Windows 95, this will put them

up

for another 99 old ages. Older package nevertheless, may really good hold to be replaced or at the

really

least, upgraded.

The twelvemonth 2000 has become a double job. One is the inability of the computing machine to

adapt to the MM/DD/YY issue, while the 2nd job is the reluctance to which we seem

to

be willing to turn to the impact it will hold. Most IS ( information system ) people are

either

unconcerned or unprepared.

Let me give you a “ short return ” on the job we all are confronting. To salvage storage

infinite

-and possibly cut down the sum of key strokes necessary in order to come in the twelvemonth to

date-most

IS groups have allocated two figures to stand for the twelvemonth. For illustration, “ 1996 ”

is stored as “ 96 ”

in informations files and “ 2000 ” will be stored as “ 00. ” These two-digit day of the months

will be on 1000000s of files

used as input for 1000000s of applications. This two figure day of the month affects informations use,

chiefly minuss and comparings. ( Jager, p. 1 ) For case, I was born in 1957. If

I ask

the computing machine to cipher how old I am today, it subtracts 57 from 96 and announces that

I & # 8217 ; m 39.

So far so good. In the twelvemonth 2000 nevertheless, the computing machine will deduct 57 from 00 and state

that I

am -57 old ages old. This mistake will impact any computation that produces or uses clip spans,

such as

an involvement computation. Banker & # 8217 ; s beware! ! !

Bringing the job closer to the home-front, allow & # 8217 ; s analyze how the CAPS system is

traveling to be affected. As CAPS is a many-sided system, I will concentrate on one country in

peculiar,

ISIS. ISIS ( Integrated Student Information System ) has the ability to acknowledge pupils,

registry

them, measure them, and maintain an academic history of each pupil ( classs, transcripts,

transportation

information, etc. ) inside of one system. This pupil information system has 100s and

100s of mentions to day of the months within it & # 8217 ; s OS. This is a COBOL system accessing a ADABAS

database. ADABAS is the file and file entree method used by ISIS to hive away pupil records

on

and recover them from. ( Shufelt, p.1 ) ADABAS has a set of regulations for puting up keys to

specify

which record to entree and what type of action ( read, compose, delete ) is to be performed.

The

day of the months will hold to hold centuries appended to them in order to stay right. Their

( CAPS )

“ hole ” is to alter the codification in the Procedure Division ( utilizing 30 as the cutoff

& gt ; 30 century = “ 19 ”

& lt ; 30 century = “ 20 ” ) . In other words, if the twelvemonth in inquiry is greater than

30 ( & gt ; 30 ) so it can

be assumed that you are mentioning to a twelvemonth in the twentieth century and a “ 19 ” will

be moved to the

century field. If the twelvemonth is less than 30 ( & lt ; 30 ) so it will travel a “ 20 ” to

the century field. If

perfectly necessary, ISIS will add a field and a superdescriptor index in order to maintain

record

retrieval in the order that the plan codification expects. The current compiler at CAPS will

non

work beyond the twelvemonth 2000 and will hold to be replaced. The “ impermanent hole ”

( Kludge ) merely

discussed ( & lt ; 30 or & gt ; 30 ) will let ISIS to run until the twelvemonth 2030, when they

hope to hold

replaced the current system by so.

For those of you with your ain place computing machines, allow & # 8217 ; s acquire up near and personal. This

job will impact you every bit good! Up to 80 % of all personal Personal computers will neglect when the twelvemonth

2000

arrives. More than 80,000,000 Personal computers will be shut down December 31, 1999 with no jobs.

On January 1, 2000, some 80,000,000 Personal computers will travel “ belly up! ” ( Jager, p. 1 ) These

computing machines

will believe the Berlin Wall is still standing and that Nixon was merely elected President!

There is

nevertheless, a trial that you can execute in order to see if you are on of the

“ lucky ” minority that do

non hold a job with the twelvemonth 2000 impacting their Personal computer.

First, put the day of the month on your computing machine to December 31, 1999. Following, put the clip to 23:58

hours ( if you use a 24 hr clock ( Zulu clip ) ) or 11:58 p.m. for 12 hr redstem storksbills. Now,

Power Off

the computing machine for at least 3 to 5 proceedingss. Note: ( It is appropriate at this clip to express

whatever

mantras or spiritual chants you feel may be good to your mind ) . Following, Power On

the

computing machine, and look into your clip and day of the month. If it reads January 1, 2000 and about a minute or

two

past midnight, take a breath a suspiration of alleviation, your OS is free from the twelvemonth 2000

“ bug. ” If nevertheless,

your computing machine gives you incorrect information, such as my ain Personal computer did ( March 12, 1945 at 10:22

ante meridiem ) welcome to the overpowering bulk of the population that has been found

“ infected. ”

All applications, from spreadsheets to electronic mail, will be adversely affected. What can you

make? Possibly you can replace your computing machine with one that is Year 2000 compatible. Is the

job in the RTC ( Real Time Clock ) , the BIOS, the OS? Even if you fix the hardware

job, is all the package you use traveling to do the “ passage ” safely or is

it traveling to pervert

as good? !

The replies to these inquiries and others like them are non answerable with a yes or a

no. For one thing, the “ prima experts ” in the computing machine universe can non hold that

there is even a

job, allow entirely discourse the magnitude upon which it will impact society and the

concern

universe. CNN correspondant Jed Duvall illustrates another possible “ job ”

scenario. Suppose

an person on the East Coast, at 2 proceedingss after midnight in New York City on January

1,

2000 decides to tag the twelvemonth and the century by naming a friend in California, where

because of

the clip zone difference, it is still 1999. With the current constellations in the phone

company

computing machines, the NewYorker will be billed from 00 to 99, a phone call some 99 old ages long! ! !

( p. 1 )

What if you deposit $ 100 into a nest eggs account that pays 5 % involvement yearly. The

following twelvemonth you decide to shut your history. The bank computing machine figures your $ 100 was

at that place for one twelvemonth at 5 % involvement, so you get $ 105 back, simple plenty. What happens

though, if

you don & # 8217 ; Ts take your money out before the twelvemonth 2000? The computing machine will re-do the

computation

precisely the same manner. Your money was in the bank from & # 8216 ; 95 to & # 8216 ; 00. That & # 8217 ; s & # 8216 ; 00 subtraction & # 8216 ; 95,

which

peers a negative 95 ( -95 ) . That & # 8217 ; s -95 old ages at 5 % involvement. That & # 8217 ; s a small spot more than

$ 10,000,

and because of the subtraction mark, it & # 8217 ; s traveling to deduct that sum from your history. You

now

owe the bank $ 9,900. Make I hold your attending yet? ? ! !

There is no industry that is immune to this job, it is a cross-platform job. This

is a job that will impact Personal computers, minis, and mainframes. There are no “ speedy

holes ” or what

everyone refers to as the “ Silver Bullet. ” The Silver Bullet is the nomenclature

used to stand for

the creative activity of an automatic hole for the Yk2 job. There are two major jobs with

this

doctrine. First, there are excessively many variables from hardware to package of different

types to

think that a “ cure-all ” can be found that will make an

“ all-embracing ” type of hole. Second,

the outlook of the general population that there is such a “ hole ” or that one

can be created instead

rapidly and easy, is making state of affairss where people are seting off turn toing the

job due

to reliance on the “ panacea. ” The “ . . . certain person will repair it. ”

type attitude pervades the

industry and the population, doing this job more serious than it already is. ( Jager,

p. 1 )

Peoples really think that there is a plan that you can get down running on Friday dark.

. .

everybody goes home, and Monday forenoon the job has been fixed. Cipher has to make

anything else, the Yk2 job poses no more menace, it has been solved. To cite Peter de

Jager,

“ Such a tool, would be fantastic.

Such a tool, would be deserving Billions of dollars.

Such a tool, is a na ve pipe dream.

Could person come near? Not really. . .

Could something cut down this job by 90 % ? I don & # 8217 ; t believe so.

Could it cut down the job by 50 % ? Possibly. . . but I still don & # 8217 ; t believe so.

Could it cut down the work load by 30 % ? Quite likely. ”

( p. 2 ) Tools are available, but are merely tools, non cures or speedy holes.

How will this affect society and the industry in 2000? How stable will package design

companies be as more and more rivals offer immense “ inducements ” for people to

“ leap ship ”

and come work for them on their jobs! ? Cash flow jobs will set people out of

concern. Computer coders will do large vaulting horses from now until 2000, as demand

additions for their expertness. What about liability issues that arise because company

“ A ” reneged

on a trade because of a computing machine bug. Sue! Sue! Sue! What about ATM lockups, or recognition

card

failures, medical exigencies, downed phone systems. This is a broad spread scenario

because

the Yk2 job will impact all these elements and more.

As is obvious, the dimensions to this challenge are evident. Given society & # 8217 ; s trust on

computing machines, the failure of the systems to run decently can intend anything from minor

incommodiousnesss to major jobs: Licenses

and permits non issued, paysheet and societal

service

cheques non cut, forces, medical and academic records misfunctioning, mistakes in banking

and

finance, accounts non paid or received, stock list non maintained, weapon systems

malfunctioning ( frisson! ) , constitutional services non provided, and so on, and so on, and so

on.

Still think you & # 8217 ; ll be unaffected. . . extremely improbable. This job will impact

calculations which

calculate age, kind by day of the month, comparison day of the months, or execute some other type of specialised

undertaking. The

Gartner Group has made the undermentioned estimates:

At $ 450 to $ 600 per affected computing machine plan, it is estimated that a medium size company

will

spend from $ 3.6 to $ 4.2 million to do the package transition. The cost per line of codification

is

estimated to be $ .80 to $ 1. VIASOFT has seen plan transition cost rise to $ 572 to

$ 1,204.

ANDERSEN CONSULTING estimates that it will take them more than 12,000 working yearss to

rectify its bing applications. Yellow CORPORATION estimates it will pass

about 10,000 working yearss to do the alteration. Estimates for the rectification of this

job in the United States entirely is upward of $ 50 to $ 75 Billion dollars.

( ITAA, p. 1 ) Is it possible to extinguish the job? Probably non, but we can do the passage

much drum sander with cooperation and the right attack. Companies and authorities bureaus

must understand the nature of the job. Unfortunately, the disbursement you find for new

package development will non be found in Yk2 research. Ignoring the obvious is non the

manner to

attack this job. To presume that the job will be corrected when the system is

replaced can be a dearly-won misjudgment. Precedences change, development agendas slip, and

system constituents will be reused, doing the job to be even more widespread.

Correcting the state of affairs may non be so hard as it will be clip devouring. For

case, the Social Security Administration estimates that it will pass 300 man-years

happening

and rectifying these day of the month mentions in their information systems & # 8211 ; systems stand foring a

sum of

30 million lines of codification. ( ITAA, p. 3 ) Common sense dictates that a comprehensive

transition

program be developed to turn to the more immediate maps of an organisation ( such as

bills,

wage benefits, collect revenue enhancements, or other critical organisation maps ) , and continue from

at that place to

finish turn toing the less critical facets of operation. Some of the machine-controlled tools may

aid to

advance the “ fix ” of the systems, such as in:

* line by line impact analysis of all day of the month mentions within a system, both in footings of

informations and

processs ;

* undertaking cost estimating and mold ;

* designation and listing of affected locations ;

* redacting support to do the existent alterations required ;

* alteration direction ;

* and proving to verify and formalize the changed system.

( ITAA, p. 3 )

Clock simulators can run a system with a fake clock day of the month and can utilize applications

that

append or produce mistakes when the twelvemonth 2000 arrives while day of the month finders search across

applications on specific day of the month standards, and browsers can assist users execute big volume

codification

review. Equally good as all these “ automated tools ” are, there are NO

“ Silver Bullets ” out at that place.

There are no speedy holes. It will take old fashioned work-hours by forces in order to

do

this “ rollover ” smooth and efficient.

Another country to look at are the deductions for public wellness information. Public wellness

information and surveillance at all degrees of local, province, federal, and international

public wellness

are particularly sensitive to and dependent upon day of the months for epidemiological ( survey of disease

happening, location, and continuance ) and wellness statistics grounds. The day of the month of events,

continuance

between events, and other computations such as age of people are core epidemiologic and

wellness

statistic demands. ( Seligman, p. 1 ) Along with this, public wellness governments are

normally

dependent upon the primary informations suppliers such as physician patterns, research labs,

infirmaries,

managed attention organisations, and out-patient centres etc. , as the beginning for original informations

upon

which public wellness determinations are based. The CDC ( Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention )

for illustration, maintains over 100 public wellness surveillance systems all of which are

dependant

upon external beginnings of informations. ( Issa, p. 5 ) This fundamentally means that it is non traveling to

be

sufficient to do the internal systems compliant to the twelvemonth 2000 in order to turn to all

of the

branchings of this issue. To exemplify this point, see the following scenario: in

April

2000, a infirmary sends an electronic surveillance record to the local or province wellness

section

describing the decease of an person who was born in the twelvemonth “ 00 ” ; is this

traveling to be a instance of

infant mortality or a geriatric instance? ?

Finally, allow & # 8217 ; s expression at one of the largest package fabrication corporations and see what

the deductions of the twelvemonth 2000 will be for Microsoft merchandises. Microsoft states that

Windows

95 and Windows NT are capable of back uping day of the months up until the twelvemonth 2099. They besides make

the

statement nevertheless:

“ It is of import to observe that when short, false day of the months ( mm/dd/yy ) are entered, it is

impossible

for the computing machine to state the difference between a twenty-four hours in 1905 and 2005. Microsoft & # 8217 ; s

merchandises,

that assume the twelvemonth from these short day of the months, will be updated in 1997 to do it easier to

presume

a 2000-based twelvemonth. As a consequence, Microsoft recommends that by the terminal of the century, all

Personal computer

package be upgraded to versions from 1997 or subsequently. ”

( Microsoft, p. 1 )

PRODUCT NAME

DATE LIMIT

DATE FORMAT

Microsoft Access 95

1999

assumed “ yy ” day of the months

Microsoft Access 95

9999

long day of the months ( “ yyyy ” )

Microsoft Access ( following version )

2029

assumed “ yy ” day of the months

Microsoft Excel 95

2019

assumed “ yy ” day of the months

Microsoft Excel 95

2078

long day of the months ( “ yyyy ” )

Microsoft Excel ( following version )

2029

assumed “ yy ” day of the months

Microsoft Excel ( following version )

9999

long day of the months ( “ yyyy ” )

Microsoft Project 95

2049

32 spots

Microsoft SQL Server

9999

“ datetime ”

MS-DOS ( R ) file system ( FAT16 )

2099

16 spots

Ocular C++ ( R ) ( 4.x ) runtime library

2036

32 spots

Ocular FoxPro

9999

long day of the months ( “ yyyy ” )

Windows 3.x file system ( FAT16 )

2099

16 spots

Windows 95 file system ( FAT16 )

2099

16 spots

Windows 95 file system ( FAT32 )

2108

32 spots

Windows 95 runtime library ( WIN32 )

2099

16 spots

Windows for Workgroups ( FAT16 )

2099

16 spots

Windows NT file system ( FAT16 )

2099

16 spots

Windows NT file system ( NTFS )

hereafter centuries

64 spots

Windows NT runtime library ( WIN32 )

2099

16 spots

Microsoft farther states that its development tools and database direction systems

provide

the flexibleness for the user to stand for day of the months in many different ways. Proper preparation of

developers to utilize day of the month formats that accommodate the passage to the twelvemonth 2000 is of the

uttermost

importance. For informational intents, I have included a chart that represents the more

popular Microsoft merchandises, their day of the month bounds, and day of the month formats. ( Chart on old page )

( Microsoft, p. 3 )

So. . . is everyone affected? Apparently non. In talking with the proprietors of St. John

Valley Communications, an Internet-Access supplier based in Fort Kent, they are thirstily

expecting the coming of 2000. They, Alan Susee and Dawn Martin had plenty foresight to do

sure that when they purchased their equipment and related package, that it would wholly be

twelvemonth

2000 compliant. It can be done, as evidenced by this hardworking twosome of persons.

The key

is to acquire informed and to remain informed. Effect the alterations you can now, and expression to

redress the

one & # 8217 ; s that you can & # 8217 ; t. The twelvemonth 2000 will be a shocker and thriller for many concerns,

but St.

John Valley Communications seem to hold it under control and are keeping their partry chapeaus

in

one manus and the mouse in the other.

As is evidently clear from the information presented, Yk2 is a job to be reckoned

with. The broad runing systems ( OS ) and package on the market lend acceptance to the thought

that

a “ silver slug ” hole is a pipe dream in the extreme. This is non nevertheless, an

unsurmountable

job. Efficient preparation and design is needed, every bit good as a battalion of man-hours to

consequence

the “ fixs ” needed to squelch the branchings and reverberations that will

necessarily occur

without intercession from within. The sit back and delay for a cure-all attack will non

work,

nor is it even imaginable that some people ( IS people ) with advanced cognition to the

contrary,

would purchase into this propaganda of slow technological decease. To misquote an old proverb,

“ The

clip for action was 10 old ages ago. ” Whatever may go on, January 1, 2000 will be a

really

interesting clip for some, a alleviation for others. . . and a nitrile capsule for the

“ shirkers. ” What

will you make now that you are better “ informed? ” Hopefully you will consequence the

necessary “ fixs

and go through the word to the others who may be taking this a small excessively lightly. It may non be

a affair

of life or decease, but it certainly as heck could intend your occupation and fiscal future.WORKS CITEDElgan, Mike. “ Experts deplore the denial of “ 2000 bug ” . ”

Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.cnn.com/2000. ( 31 October 1996 ) .Jager, Peter de. “ DOOMSDAY. ” Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.year2000.com/doom

( 2 November 1996 ) .

* “ Believe me it & # 8217 ; s existent! Early Warning. ” Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.year2000.com

( 4 November 1996 ) .

* “ Biting the Silver Bullet. ” Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.year2000.com/bullet

( 2 November 1996 ) .Shufelt, Ursula. “ Yk2. ” Ursula @ maine.maine.edu. ( 7 November 1996 ) .Duvall, Jed. “ The twelvemonth 2000 does non calculate. ” Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.cnn.com/news

( 3 November 1996 ) .ITAA. “ The Year 2000 Software Conversion: Issues and Observations. ”

Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.itaa.org/yr2000-1.htm ( 7 November 1996 ) .Seligman, James & A ; Issa, Nabil. “ The Year 2000 Issue: Deductions for Public

Health Information and Surveillance Systems. ”

Hypertext transfer protocol: //www.cdc.gov/year2000.htm ( 9 November 1996 ) .Microsoft. “ Deductions of the Year 2000 on Microsoft Products. ”

Hypertext transfer protocol: //army.mil/army-yk2/articles/y2k.htm ( 9 November 1996 ) .