I suppose, it is very pleasant while the frost lasts, an unpleasant time comes when the thaw begins. Cars and buses go along streets splashing the mud an slush on the passers-by. Everyone is grumbling and scolding the weather. But soon a warm wind blows up heavy grey clouds and the sun shines brightly in the cloudless azure sky. In a few months summer will come. Summer is the most suitable season for holidays and vacations. People enjoy bright summer days if they are in the country or at the seaside. They go bathing and swimming, and fishing and boating.
But it’s unbearable to stay in town on such hot and glaring days. Everybody droops and shambles and tries to hide in the shade. Then after a good rest autumn and harvest time comes. The corn has turned golden and the farmer will reap it and put it in his barn. The air is fresh and full of the autumn fragrance of ripe apples, plums and peaches and of course, coloured asters, chrysanthemums. But the weather is so changeable in autumn, people have to wear raincoats and umbrellas if they don’t want to get wet through.
The dead leaves cover the ground like a thick motley carpet, the roads are slippery and wet, there are lots of puddles in the streets and again everyone is looking forward to frosty winter days and much snow out-of-doors. It’s rather difficult to say what season is the best one, however dull and nasty or charming and marvellous the weather may be. As to me, I always look forward to summer. I am never tired of its long sunny days, warm rains with thunderstorms and hail, the buzz of mosquitoes and midges.
I like to spend my summer holidays at the seaside. In my childhood I used to enjoy playing on the beach, making castles and forts in the sands. When one becomes older one begins to notice the murmur of the sea and it’s so beautiful to look at the moon’s way on the water in the darkness. The air is fresh and it’s easy to breathe. I like to lie in the sun getting as brown, paddle in the water or get splashed by the waves. But it’s not every year that you can go to the seaside.
Sometimes I spend my holidays in the country. Most of my time I spend in the woods gathering strawberries and flowers or at the river bathing and swimming in it. Very often, I help my granny in the vegetable garden weeding it or gathering tomatoes, cucumbers or radish. I like to walk in the rain or just sit indoors watching the raindrops falling down from the green leaves and blades of the grass onto the ground. When summer is over, I always feel sorry, because it was too short and was too quick to pass.
Over a long time, bankruptcy prediction has been the focus of considerable academic effort. For
example; a number of papers by Altman using expost univariate analysis where we could observe,
for example, that companies which had greater capacity to absorb interest payments were less likely
to fail. The difficulty though is in applying these results to exante prediction which becomes very
prone to type I/II errors. Altman went on to develop a multivariate approach to bankruptcy
prediction (Zscore model). Similar effort by Beaver (1968), Zmijewski (1983), Ohlson (1980) and
many others. The relatively high misclassification rates were still often found to be present. This may
have inspired the development of socalled marketbased models (which drew their inspiration from
the BlackScholes option pricing model) and which have been operationalised in real commercial
models which have been (and are) used by banks. Are these marketbased models any better though?
What is the evidence?
Suggested Reading would include, but not be limited to:
Penman Ch. 20
Agarwal & Taffler (2007, 2008)
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