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Human Trafficking as an Issue of Global Importance Essay

Table of Contents Introduction NASW Policy Statement Human Trafficking in Australia United Nations’ Position on the Issue Personal Position on the Issue Conclusion References Introduction The phenomenon of human trafficking is an atrocious violation of basic human rights, yet it remains a notorious part of reality. According to the definition provided by Gupta (2019), human trafficking is a “serious organized crime against humanity” involving the act of selling human beings (Gupta, 2019, p. 30). Currently, the levels of human trafficking reach 50,000 people per year in the U.S., as the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2018) reports. Being a threat to global safety and well-being, the phenomenon of human trafficking has to be managed by reconsidering the existing policy statements of organizations responsible for monitoring the levels of human trafficking and preventing the phenomenon from taking place. NASW Policy Statement A range of organizations dealing with the problem of human rights violations focuses on the phenomenon of human trafficking. In its policy statement, the National Association of Social Workers (NASW) indicates that the organization’s main goals include building public awareness about the dire effects of the subject matter and the increasing rates thereof (National Association of Social Workers, 2018). The focus on encouraging people to abandon stereotypes about the victims of human trafficking as promiscuous women and, instead, view them as victims of a crime against humanity is clearly a strength of the report. Human Trafficking in Australia The problem of human trafficking has spread across the globe, affecting all states, Australia not being an exception to this sad observation. As the recent reports on the incidents of human trafficking in Australia show, the problem is not as common in the specified state as in other parts of the world, yet the issue remains a serious social concern (Australia Federal Police, 2018). As a result, the Australia Federal Police has issued several statements that outline the necessity to eliminate the phenomenon from the social landscape of Australia or, at the very least, to minimize the threat of exposure to human trafficking for Australian citizens (Australia Federal Police, 2018). Overall, despite a generally safer environment and lower crime rates, Australia has also seen a rise in the rates of human trafficking, which indicates that the problem has to be addressed on a global level. United Nations’ Position on the Issue Currently, the United Nations (UN) has a very strong viewpoint on the subject matter. The position that the UN has adopted in regard to the issue of human trafficking is very rigid. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2018) (UNODC) has issued several statements in which the organization delineates its stance on the problem, focusses on the causes thereof and the methods of eradicating it, and strives to raise awareness about the dire effects that it has on the global society. However, the organization seems to lack control over the problem and the causes thereof, which hampers its management. Personal Position on the Issue Human trafficking as a form of slavery that has entered the present-day society has always seemed abhorrent to me. I am inclined to believe that human trafficking is linked to poverty, low education levels among vulnerable groups, and the lack of social support. Therefore, introducing the specified element into the prevention of human trafficking on a local scale could help in managing the issue. Conclusion By shaping the current policies for reducing and eliminating human trafficking toward the focus on values and conditions that condition people to participate in it, one will contribute to addressing the problem. While the UN and similar organizations have devised numerous programs for handling the issue of human trafficking, it still remains a part of the modern criminal environment. Thus, reconsidering the approach toward it by increasing awareness, literacy, and safety levels locally, will affect the problem positively. References Australia Federal Police. (2018). Human trafficking. Web. Get your 100% original paper on any topic done in as little as 3 hours Learn More Gupta, P. (2019). Transnational human trafficking: An unsolved issue. International Journal of Political Activism and Engagement (IJPAE), 6(2), 30-41. Web. National Association of Social Workers. (2018). Social work speaks, 11th edition: NASW policy statement- 2018-2020 (11th ed.). Oxford, UK: NASW Press. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (2018). Global report on trafficking in persons 2018. Web.
Case Study. Please be as detailed as possible when writing paper and spreadsheet?.

Module 1 – CaseDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, PROBABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTAssignment OverviewYou are a consultant who works for the Diligent Consulting Group. In this Case, you are engaged on a consulting basis by Loving Organic Foods. In order to get a better idea of what might have motivated customers’ buying habits you are asked to analyze the ages of the customers who have purchased organic foods over the past 3 months. Past research done by the Diligent Consulting Group has shown that different age groups buy certain products for different reasons. Loving Organic Foods has sent a survey to 200 customers who have previously purchased organic foods, and 124 customers have responded. The survey includes age data of past customers who purchased organic foods in the previous quarter.Case AssignmentUsing Excel, create a frequency distribution (histogram) of the age data that was captured from the survey. You should consider the width of the age categories (e.g., 5 years, 10 years, or other). That is, which age category grouping provides the most useful information? Once you have created this histogram, determine the mean, median, and mode.After you have reviewed the data, write a report to your boss that briefly describes the results that you obtained. Make a recommendation on how this data might be used for marketing purposes. Be sure to conduct adequate research on organic foods industry, organic market analysis, and healthy food industry using IBISWorld database or other databases such as Business Source Complete (EBSCO) and Business Source Complete – Business Searching Interface in our online library. Provide a brief description on the industry background and the consumer changing attitudes and behavior toward healthy lifestyles. Also identify the customer demographics of organic food industry and explain how the customers of Loving Organic Foods are different from this target market.Data: Download the Excel-based data file with the age data of the 124 customers: Data chart for BUS520 Module 1 Case. Use these data in Excel to create your histogram.Assignment ExpectationsExcel AnalysisComplete analysis in Excel using the Histogram function. Check the following video on histogram: you are not so familiar with Excel, refer to the following link on Excel training videos: Check the professional market research reports from IBISWorld database to find the industry analysis for your cumulative Session Long Project.IBISWorld Overview (n.d.). IBISWorld, Inc., New York, NY.IBISWorld Forecast (n.d.). IBISWorld, Inc., New York, NY.IBISWorld Data and Sources (n.d.). IBISWorld, Inc., New York, NY.IBISWorld Navigation Tips (n.d.). IBISWorld, Inc., New York, NY.Written ReportLength requirements: 4–5 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages). NOTE: You must submit 4–5 pages of written discussion and analysis. This means that you should avoid use of tables and charts as “space fillers.”Provide a brief introduction to/background of the problem.Provide a brief description of organic food industry and target market characteristics such as their demographics, lifestyles and shopping behaviors.Provide a written analysis that supports your Histogram age groups (bins). Based on your analysis of the histogram data, provide complete and meaningful recommendations as the data relates to Loving Organic Foods’s marketing strategy.Write clearly, simply, and logically. Use double-spaced, black Verdana or Times Roman font in 12 pt. type size.Have an introduction at the beginning to introduce the topics and use keywords as headings to organize the report.Avoid redundancy and general statements such as “All organizations exist to make a profit.” Make every sentence count.Paraphrase the facts using your own words and ideas, employing quotes sparingly. Quotes, if absolutely necessary, should rarely exceed five words.Upload both your written report and Excel file to the case 1 Dropbox.Here are some guidelines on how to conduct information search and build critical thinking skills.Emerald Group Publishing. (n.d.). Searching for Information. Retrieved from Group Publishing. (n.d.). Developing Critical Thinking. Retrieved from AND BACKGROUND INFORMATIONModule 1 – BackgroundDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, PROBABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENT Required ReadingStatistics are all around you, sometimes used well, sometimes not. We must learn how to distinguish the two cases. Just as important as detecting the deceptive use of statistics is the appreciation of the proper use of statistics. You must also learn to recognize statistical evidence that supports a stated conclusion. When a research team is testing a new treatment for a disease, statistics allows them to conclude based on a relatively small trial that there is good evidence their drug is effective. Therefore, it is important to understand statistics. In this course, you would reform your statistical habits from now on. No longer will you blindly accept numbers or findings. Instead, you will begin to think about the numbers, their sources, and most importantly, the procedures used to generate them. In this way, you can become a more rational decision maker by analyzing the past performance to make business planning.Statistics are often presented in an effort to add credibility to an argument or advice. You can see this by paying attention to television advertisements. Many of the numbers thrown about in this way do not represent careful statistical analysis. They can be misleading, and push you into decisions that you might find cause to regret. If you cannot distinguish good from faulty reasoning, then you are vulnerable to manipulation and to decisions that are not in your best interest. Statistics provides tools that you need in order to react intelligently to information you hear or read. In this sense, statistics is one of the most important things that you can study. For these reasons, learning about statistics is essential to business intelligence. This course will help you refresh some statistical essentials that are related to business analytics and decision making.Some Basic TerminologiesBefore we begin gathering and analyzing data we need to characterize the population we are studying. The population of a study is the group the collected data is intended to describe. Sometimes the intended population is called the target population, since if we design our study badly, the collected data might not actually be representative of the intended population.Why is it important to specify the population? We might get different answers to our question as we vary the population we are studying. First-year students at the University of Washington might take slightly more diverse courses than those at your college, and some of these courses may require less popular textbooks that cost more; or, on the other hand, the University Bookstore might have a larger pool of used textbooks, reducing the cost of these books to the students. Whichever the case (and it is likely that some combination of these and other factors are in play), the data we gather from your college will probably not be the same as that from the University of Washington. Particularly when conveying our results to others, we want to be clear about the population we are describing with our data.If we were able to gather data on every member of our population, say the average (we will define “average” more carefully in a subsequent section) amount of money spent on textbooks by each first-year student at your college during the 2015-2016 academic year, the resulting number would be called a parameter. A parameter is a value (average, percentage, etc.) calculated using all the data from a population. We seldom see parameters, however, since surveying an entire population is usually very time-consuming and expensive, unless the population is very small or we already have the data collected. A survey of an entire population is called a census. Since surveying an entire population is often impractical, we usually select a sample to study. A sample is a smaller subset of the entire population, ideally one that is fairly representative of the whole population. For now, let us assume that samples are chosen in an appropriate manner. If we survey a sample, say 100 first-year students at your college, and find the average amount of money spent by these students on textbooks, the resulting number is called a statistic. A statistic is a value (average, percentage, etc.) calculated using the data from a sample.Once we have gathered data, we might wish to classify it. Roughly speaking, data can be classified as categorical data or quantitative data. Categorical (qualitative) data are pieces of information that allow us to classify the objects under investigation into various categories. Quantitative dataare responses that are numerical in nature and with which we can perform meaningful arithmetic calculations. Once we have collected data from surveys or experiments, we need to summarize and present the data in a way that will be meaningful to the reader. We will begin with graphical presentations of data then explore numerical summaries of data.Frequency Table and Histogram Categorical, or qualitative, data are pieces of information that allow us to classify the objects under investigation into various categories. We usually begin working with categorical data by summarizing the data into a frequency table. Sometimes we need an even more intuitive way of displaying data. This is where charts and graphs come in. There are many, many ways of displaying data graphically.Quantitative, or numerical, data can also be summarized into frequency tables. If we have a large number of widely varying data values, creating a frequency table that lists every possible value as a category would lead to an exceptionally long frequency table, and probably would not reveal any patterns. For this reason, it is common with quantitative data to group data into class intervals. In general, we define class intervals so that:Each interval is equal in size. For example, if the first class contains values from 120 to 129, the second class should include values from 130 to 139.We have somewhere between 5 and 20 classes, typically, depending upon the number of data we’re working with.We can also use histogram to present quantitative, or numerical, data. A histogram is like a bar graph, but where the horizontal axis is a number line. Consider a repetitive process, for example, driving home from work. You (and your spouse) have noticed that it takes longer to get home sometimes than others. So you want to do an experiment and find out just how long it does take. You record your time to drive home for 6 weeks and get 30 data points (5 days, 6 weeks). Then you decide to analyze this statistically and see just how frequent the short trips and long trips and medium trips take. The best way to do this is with a frequency diagram. Here is an example of what one looks like:Probability and Expected ValueThe probability of a specified event is the chance or likelihood that it will occur. There are several ways of viewing probability. One would be experimental in nature, where we repeatedly conduct an experiment. Suppose we flipped a coin over and over again and it came up heads about half of the time; we would expect that in the future whenever we flipped the coin it would turn up heads about half of the time. When a weather reporter says “there is a 10% chance of rain tomorrow,” she is basing that on prior evidence; that out of all days with similar weather patterns, it has rained on 1 out of 10 of those days.Another view would be subjective in nature, in other words an educated guess. If someone asked you the probability that the Seattle Mariners would win their next baseball game, it would be impossible to conduct an experiment where the same two teams played each other repeatedly, each time with the same starting lineup and starting pitchers, each starting at the same time of day on the same field under the precisely the same conditions. Since there are so many variables to take into account, someone familiar with baseball and with the two teams involved might make an educated guess that there is a 75% chance they will win the game; that is, if the same two teams were to play each other repeatedly under identical conditions, the Mariners would win about three out of every four games. But this is just a guess, with no way to verify its accuracy, and depending upon how educated the educated guesser is, a subjective probability may not be worth very much.We will return to the experimental and subjective probabilities from time to time, but in this course we will mostly be concerned with theoretical probability, which is defined as follows: Suppose there is a situation with n equally likely possible outcomes and that m of those n outcomes correspond to a particular event; then the probability of that event is defined as m/n.If you roll a die, pick a card from deck of playing cards, or randomly select a person and observe their hair color, we are executing an experiment or procedure. In probability, we look at the likelihood of different outcomes. We begin with some terminology. The result of an experiment is called an outcome. An event is any particular outcome or group of outcomes. A simple event is an event that cannot be broken down further. The sample space is the set of all possible simple events.Basic ProbabilityGiven that all outcomes are equally likely, we can compute the probability of an event E using this formula:P(E)=Number of outcomes corresponding to the event E/Total number of equally-likely outcomesFor example, if we roll a 6-sided die, calculateP(rolling a 1)P(rolling a number bigger than 4)Recall that the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}There is one outcome corresponding to “rolling a 1”, so the probability is 1/6There are two outcomes bigger than a 4, so the probability is 2/6=1/3Probabilities are essentially fractions, and can be reduced to lower terms like fractions. An impossible event has a probability of 0. A certain event has a probability of 1. The probability of any event must be 0≤P(E)≤1. In the course of this module, if you compute a probability and get an answer that is negative or greater than 1, you have made a mistake and should check your work.Expected ValueExpected value is perhaps the most useful probability concept we will discuss. It has many applications, from insurance policies to making financial decisions, and it is one thing that the casinos and government agencies that run gambling operations and lotteries hope most people never learn about. Expected Value is the average gain or loss of an event if the procedure is repeated many times. We can compute the expected value by multiplying each outcome by the probability of that outcome, then adding up the products. In general, if the expected value of a game is negative, it is not a good idea to play the game, since on average you will lose money. It would be better to play a game with a positive expected value (good luck trying to find one!), although keep in mind that even if the average winnings are positive it could be the case that most people lose money and one very fortunate individual wins a great deal of money. If the expected value of a game is 0, we call it a fair game, since neither side has an advantage. Expected value also has applications outside of gambling. Expected value is very common in making insurance decisions and other business decisions.For example, a 40-year-old man in the Unite States has a 0.242% risk of dying during the next year. An insurance company charges $275 for a life-insurance policy that pays a $100,000 death benefit. What is the expected value for the person buying the insurance?The probabilities and outcomes are:OutcomeProbability of outcome$100,000 – $275 = $99,7250.00242-$2751 – 0.00242 = 0.99758The expected value is ($99,725)(0.00242) + (-$275)(0.99758) = -$33.Not surprisingly, the expected value is negative; the insurance company can only afford to offer policies if they, on average, make money on each policy. They can afford to pay out the occasional benefit because they offer enough policies that those benefit payouts are balanced by the rest of the insured people. For people buying the insurance, there is a negative expected value, but there is a security that comes from being insured that is worth the cost.Subjective Assessments of Risk and UncertaintyHow do we humans make subjective assessments of uncertainty and how do we (should we) deal with them as probabilities? We will look at:Assessing discrete probabilitiesVarious types of heuristics and biasesDecomposition, experts and probability assessmentsProbability: A Subjective InterpretationOften our statements involve informal, personal, and subjective assessments of uncertainty at a fundamental level. Subjective assessments of uncertainty are an important element of decision analysis. A basic tenet of modern decision analysis is that subjective judgments of uncertainty can be interpreted in terms of probability. Many public policy issues and decisions involve probabilities, often a mix of formal (e.g., computer models) and subjective (e.g., verbal statements such as “likely” or “rarely”) probability assessments. For example,Weather forecasts and farmers protecting cropsEarthquake predictions and real estate pricesEnvironmental issues, like global warming and public policies on fuelsProbability theory may be presented in two general ways: 1) In terms of long-run frequencies, e.g., tossing a coin, or collecting data from a specific process, for example driving time to home from work. This approach is most useful for events that recur often and have not yet happened, e.g., gambling with cards or stock prices. And 2) In terms of subjective judgments or degrees of belief, e.g. using your gut to decide to bet on a lottery ticket. This approach is most useful for rare or unique events or events that have already happened, e.g., nuclear war or Marilyn Monroe’s death in 1962.If decision analysis is to be precise and rigorous, it must operate with numbers, not verbal phrases, for probabilities. Calculations require some type of quantification. Also, verbal representations of uncertainty are subject to varied interpretations depending on people and contexts.Example: Accounting for Contingent LossesStatement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 5, “Accounting for Contingencies,” provides guidance to companies on reporting various kinds of losses that might happen. They are to be reported as “probable,” “remote,” or “reasonably possible.” These terms in turn are defined verbally, e.g., “probable” means “likely to occur.” Defining such terms verbally instead of numerically allows for a wide range of interpretations by those doing the reporting (companies) and those interpreting the reports (e.g., accountants, analysts, stockholders, etc.).Assessing Discrete ProbabilitiesThere are three basic methods for assessing probabilities: Method #1 – Directly as the probability of an event occurring; Method #2 – Indirectly as placing a bet; and Method #3 – Indirectly as a comparison of two lotteries, one for the event in question, the other as a benchmark.Method #1: As ProbabilitiesSimply ask the decision maker (DM) to assess the probability directly. “What is your belief regarding the probability that event such and such will occur?” The disadvantages of this method are that the DM may or may not be able or willing to give a direct answer to the question and/or the DM may place little confidence in the answer given.Method #1 (Lakers Example): Suppose that the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Boston Celtics in the NBA finals this year. We are interested in finding the decision maker’s probability that the Lakers will win the championship. Using Method #1 directly ask, “What do you think are the chances of the Lakers winning?”Method #2: As BetsAsk about bets that the person would be willing to place. Find a bet with a specific amount such that the decision maker is indifferent no matter which side of the bet wins. This means that the expected value of the bet is the same regardless of which side of the bet is taken. Now solve for the probability.Disadvantages of this method: Some people don’t like betting out of principle. And people as risk averse, they value a loss higher than an equivalent win. This will skew any bets.Method #2 (Lakers Example): Continuing with the Lakers vs. the CelticsSet up a general framework in which the two sides of a bet are oppositesBet 1:Win $X if the Lakers win.Lose $Y if the Lakers lose.Start with the amounts of the bets far enough apart that the person will prefer one over the other. Then adjust X and Y till the person is indifferent, i.e., both are equally attractive.For Example, start with 500 and 200. After several adjustments, the person reaches this point of indifference:Bet 1Win $250 if the Lakers win.Lose $380 if the Lakers lose.Bet 2Lose $250 if the Lakers win.Win $380 if the Lakers lose.Then we can solve for the probability by making expected values of each choice equal, because the person is indifferent. Pr(LW) * X + Pr(LL)*(-Y) = Pr(LL)*(-X) + Pr(LW)*Y, and Pr(LL) = 1= Pr(LW). By using algebra we can combine and condense the equation.Pr(Lakers Win) = Y/(X+Y). Entering the values of the bets we get: = 380/(250+380) = 0.603This person believes there is a 60% chance the Lakers will win and a 40% that the Celtics will lose.Method # 3: As Lotteries. We will skip this method.Assessing Continuous Probabilities; this is an advanced topic.Heuristics and BiasesThe above discussion of probability assessment probably sounds fairly straightforward – very logical, systematic, and mathematical! However, these assessments are subjective judgments made by people, which raises some problems. People use simplifying techniques and rules of thumbs for making many decisions – called heuristics. We are not natural statisticians and have difficulty comprehending concepts like probability. Heuristics often lead to systematic errors, as opposed to random errors. That is, subjective judgments are frequently biased.Heuristics are the way we process information; a heuristic is short-cut or rule of thumb using limited data to make a decision in a simplified way.Biases (systematic errors) are a result of the processing. Two ways to define bias:As the systematic differences between subjective probabilities and data-based probabilitiesThe extent to which subjective probabilities are different from what they would be in the absence of the heuristicsHeuristics and Biases can come from several different sources, either cognitive or emotional, and are categorized in five groups: Memory, Statistical, Confidence, Adjustment, Motivational.The following review of biases is not exhaustive but does cover most of the major ones.Memory-Based BiasesRepresentativeness bias: subjective judgment made from memory by comparing the information known about the person or thing with the stereotypical member of the category. It involves ignoring base rate.Availability bias: judging the probability of an event by the ease with which we can retrieve similar events from memory.Imaginability bias: An event’s probability is judged by how easily it can be imagined.Illusory correlation bias: the perception of a pair of events occurring simultaneously leads to an incorrect judgment regarding the probability (usually overestimated) of the two events occurring together again.Statistical BiasesBase rate neglect bias: ignoring or being insensitive to base rates or prior probabilities. It leads to over-adjusting for new information.Chance bias: assessing independent random events as having some inherent (non-random, even causal) relationship. We resist believing that things can really be random.Conjunction bias: overestimating the likelihood of the intersection of two (or more) events – event A “and” event B occur together. Disjunction bias: underestimating the likelihood of disjunctive events – either event A “or” event B can occur.Sample bias: ignoring the fact that small samples have higher probabilities of leading to incorrect inferences causes a person to draw overly strong conclusions form a small sample. Small samples are especially vulnerable to Type I (false positives) and Type II (false negative) errors. This is also called the law of small numbers.Confidence BiasesDesire bias: overestimating the likelihood of a desired outcome. Systematic “wishful thinking.”Selectivity bias: discounting or excluding information that is inconsistent with one’s personal experience or preferences. Reducing the amount of information processed can cause probabilities to incorrectly assessed.Adjustment/Anchoring Biases (Individuals tend to under-adjust their initial judgments in face of uncertainty or randomness.)Anchor and adjustment heuristic: choosing an initial anchor of some sort and then adjusting. Usually insufficiently adjusted from the anchor. Affect assessing continuous probabilities more than it affects assessing discrete probabilities.Partition dependence bias: incorrectly adjusting probability assessments from the initial default assessments due to having to assess a series of related outcomes together. That is, the probability is divided or partitioned among the possible outcomes. Tend to under-adjust subsequent assessments.Conservatism bias: under-adjusting a probability assessment because new information is discounted due to the decision maker anchoring on previous information. Opposite of base-rate bias where new information is weighted too heavily.Regression Bias: improperly assessing a probability due to difficulty comprehending that subsequent random events cause an average to regress toward the mean. If performance or measurements are random, then extreme cases will tend to be followed by less extreme ones. However, decision makers notice extreme events more often and base probability assessments on them.Motivational BiasesMotivational Biases: result from other mental processes besides information processing, e.g., emotions and incentives. May be very subtle or even subconscious, so that the decision maker isn’t aware of it. May cause a bias that does not reflect the decision maker’s true belief.Heuristics and Biases: ImplicationsThe prior list of heuristics and biases may have made you pessimistic about our ability to make decisions, especially probability assessments. However, we should keep in mind that heuristics are frequently, if not usually, beneficial. They can make decision making more efficient and effective for humans, given our cognitive and emotive make-up and limitations. Recent research has also given us reasons to be hopeful and positive about human decision making. We can learn over time and with effort become better at assessing probabilities and statistics. Awareness of the heuristics we use can allow us to consciously counter their negative effects, i.e., biases. We can learn techniques to make assessments in structured ways (e.g., lottery method) not involving heuristics. Decomposing complex problems can attenuate the effects of heuristics.Decomposition and Probability Assessment and ExpertsDecomposition is defined as breaking a probability assessment into smaller and more manageable chunks. There are three common scenarios for using decomposition.Other events that relate to the event of interestUnderlying causes that lead to the event of interestPrior events that must happen before the event of interest occursWe will look at just Scenario 1.Decomposition Example of Scenario 1What is the probability that a given stock price increases? Instead of considering only the stock itself, we might think about its relationship to the market as a whole. We could assess the probability that the market goes up (as measured by the Dow Jones average), and then assess the conditional probabilities that the stock price increases given that the market increases and given that the market does not increase.Experts and Probability AssessmentSometimes an expert is needed to assess probabilities, especially in complex problems. This approach has grown in importance over the last two decades. Choosing an expert should be approached with professionalism and standards. The following slides present one such protocol for expert assessment.Assessing ExpertsBackground: identify those variables for which expert assessment is needed; assess the appropriateness of using an expert.Identifying and recruiting experts: in-house experts might be available or an external search is needed.Motivating experts: show them that a decision must be made with the available information; build rapport and enthusiasm.Structuring and decomposition: explore the expert’s understanding of the problem; develop a model of the expert’s thinking about the problem.Probability-assessment training: many experts lack this training; explain the principles of probability assessment and allow them to practice; make aware of heuristics and biases.Probability elicitation and verification: expert makes the assessment, which is then checked by someone trained in probability assessment.Aggregating multiple probability distributions: when using several experts, combine their distribution assessments into one for use by the decision maker.Licenses and Attributions: CC Licensed content, Shared previouslyMath in Society. Authored by: Open Textbook Store, Transition Math Project, and the Open Course Library. Located at: License: CC BY-SA: Attribution-ShareAlikeOCLPhase 2. (2012, June 17). Basics of probability: Events and outcomes [Video file]. Retrieved from License: CC BY: AttributionOCLPhase2. (2012, June 17). Basic probabilities [Video file]. Retrieved from License: CC BY: AttributionKhan Academy. (2010, April 19). Histograms [Video file]. Retrieved from License: All Rights Reserved. License Terms: Standard YouTube LicenseIntroductory Statistics. Authored by: Barbara Illowski, Susan Dean. Provided by: Open Stax. License: CC BY: Attribution. License Terms: Download for free at[email protected] (2012, June 17). Joint probabilities of independent events: P(A and B) [Video file]. Retrieved from License: CC BY: AttributionOpenStax, Statistics, Histograms, Frequency Polygons, and Time Series Graphs. Provided by: OpenStax. Located at:[email protected]:11/Introductory_Statistics. License: CC BY: AttributionOCLPhase2. (2012, June 17). Probability: Complements [Video file]. Retrieved from License: CC BY: AttributionOCLPhase2. (2012, June 17). Probability of two events: P(A or B) [Video file]. Retrieved from License: CC BY: AttributionOptional ReadingCharlesworth, D. (2013). Decision analysis for managers: A guide for making better personal and business decisions. New York, NY: Business Expert Press. Available in the Trident Online Library.If you have no prior knowledge of Excel, you may check the following resources or search online to get familiar with different features of Excel.Learn Basic Excel Skills For Beginners || Part 1. (2012). Retrieved from Basic Excel Skills For Beginners || Part 2. (2012). Retrieved from of Excel: Formulas, Formatting, Sort, Filter, PivotTables, Charts, Keyboards. (2011). Retrieved from
Case Study. Please be as detailed as possible when writing paper and spreadsheet?

Company Background And History Hsbc Business Essay. HSBC is the famous world’s local bank which headquartered in London. Furthermore, HSBC also consider one of the largest banking and financial services organizations in the world and largest foreign-owned bank in Malaysia who offers a full range of personal and commercial services from a network of branches and direct channels. Besides that, HSBC has been offering Islamic financial services in Malaysia since 1994. Moreover, HSBC having a huge and strong company background which its international network contains and comprises around 8,000 offices in 87 countries and territories. There are located in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa. By the way, HSBC plan to discovery more new market in different country within the world currently. HSBC provides a comprehensive range of financial services to around 100 million customers in the daily working and providing suggestion or evaluation to their customer when they want to do investment. In additions, HSBC always provide money saving plan which allow customer to save money wisely and get higher bonus rate if compare with normal bonus rate of saving account in other bank. HSBC bank also providing loan service of purchase cars and houses to the customer who lacking of money. HSBC having four customer groups and global businesses and there are personal financial services, commercial banking, global banking and market and Private Banking. In additions, the HSBC Group has an international pedigree which is unique and successful. This is because many of its principal companies opened for business over a century ago and they have a long history which is rich in variety and achievement. Those principal companies which rich in achievement help to build HSBC’s business and long history of HSBC gain a lot of confidence from a large amount of customers. Maslow’s Needs Hierarchy Theory is a theory that contains five different stages needs of a person. There are physiological needs, safety needs, belongingness needs, esteem needs and self-actualization. Physiological needs mean that human need food, air and shelter to survive. Safety needs mean that human need a secure and stable environment and belongingness mean human need love, affection and friendship. Moreover, human need esteem needs for their personal achievement and respect from other people. Lastly, human desire to reach self-actualization which realize their full potential and achieve higher goal in their life. Employer and manager of the HSBC bank always use the Maslow’s Needs Hierarchy Theory to motivate their staff and employee. They motivate their staff to work harder in order to get higher return and higher position. Next, the Learned Needs Theory mean that needs of person can be amplified or suppressed through self-concept, social norms and past experience. There are three types of needs in the theory and there are needs for achievement, needs for affiliation and needs for power. In the HSBC bank, employee and staff always learn to obtain more power that controls other behavior when they are higher position than others. They learned this needs by observe other who having higher position. Hence, they will work harder to get reach their needs and target. Expectancy Theory of Motivation also becomes one of the tools that manager of HSNC bank to motivate their employee. In the Expectancy Theory of Motivation, it state that people expecting to achieve certain outcome by putting certain effort and performance. In addition, it also means that certain level of effort and performance will surely create output of same level with the effort. For this reason, staff of HSNC bank will work harder and put in more effort that will make them get higher return. Managers also motivate and persuade them to increase the effort in order to increase their salary. Content HSBC keep motivates their employees in order to have successful business.We found that HSBC has implemented two types of motivation model which are McClelland’s theory of needs and Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. HSBC has satisfied employees who desire are for the need of power defined in the McClelland’s theory of needs. This need often is perceived as undesirable. Employees with high need for power will be more commitment on their job. They are willing to spend more time to improve themselves and company. Besides, most individuals need to feel they have responsibility and the power to influence results by their actions. HSBC will give them the freedom to choose options and goals at work. For people who are desire for the need of achievement, HSBC used performance appraisal and pay for performance to record employee’s performance. Employee will receive cash bonuses when stated performance goals are reached. Employees with high need for achievement will seek to excel high-risk situation and tend to avoid both low-risk situation. Appraisals are a positive way for an employee to know how well they are performing the duties assigned to them and it is also a good indicator of how an employee needs to improve in work.Therefore, HSBC will also give employees the challenge of new projects to motivate them. Moreover, those employees who have high need for affiliation, they tend to conform to the norms of their work group. Remuneration packages also play an important role in motivating employees. But every employee’s wants and needs are different and what motivate one employee may be different also. Therefore, HSBC divided salary into several elements including basic pay, commission, bonuses, profit-related pay and share dividends to motivate them. Bonuses can link to clear targets for individual performance and will encourage individual effort.Bonuses also link to company profit and promote team goals such as sales, margins, costs and employee punctuality. Furthermore, HSBC also fulfill the safety needs of employees byproviding pension, health insurance, life insurance, and healthcare schemes to motivate employees. Some employees appreciate these much. Employees have the chance to participate on-site health screenings for diabetes, blood pressure and cholesterol for free every year. Employees who have fulfilled safety needs, they will tend to feel free from the threat of physical and emotional harm. This will improve employees’ performance in their work. Besides, HSBC also provided company cars for certain employees and offering staff discount on company product or services such as free interest loan. HSBC understand that chance to achieve ambitions is a major motivation. Hence, HSBC motivate employees by giving them recognition such as promote them to a higher level. Furthermore, HSBC will also motivate employee by rewarding them money or increase salary. Manager will praise or criticism employees to let them know when they are doing well and when they are doing badly. The purpose of doing this is to improve employee’s performance, help them to learn from experience, build employee’s motivation and self-esteem. In addition, HSBC offers Sharesave to the employees. HSBC give opportunity for employee to purchase shares of HSBC Holdings stock at a 20 percent discount without brokerage fees or commissions. Employees contribute through payroll deductions over a three or five year contract period. They have the opportunity to use all or part of their savings plus interest to buy shares at the previously fixed discount price. If the value of the stock declines, they can withdraw all of their savings plus interest.This Sharesave will motivate employees to work for best interest of the company because they are also the shareholder of the company. They will maximize stock price of the company so that the price will rise above the opinion’s price level. Besides, HSBC provided time off program to employees with a bank of paid days off to use as they wish. HSBC also provided company-paid holidays annually for employees. Employees who wish to observe other holidays may do so by using their time off program days. Furthermore, HSBC also offer retirement and savings program for employees in order to form a partnership between the company and employee. To support that partnership, HSBC offers employees two ways to build for their future which are tax reduction investment plan and trust as well as retirement income plan and trust. Tax reduction investment plan and trust offers the convenience of payroll deductions, tax advantages and diverse investment opportunities. While the retirement income plan and trust is the company contributes funds to a retirement account for each eligible employee at no charge to the employee. Lastly, HSBC also provided merchant discounts to motivate employees. Employee can take advantage of discounts and special promotions offered by national and local merchants, including savings on furniture, jewelry, call phone plans, travel programs and tours, as well as health club memberships. Pros and cons McClelland’s theory of needs The theory of needs consist three types of learned learns. There are need for achievement, need for affiliation and need for power. McClelland argued that three of the learned needs can be strengthened through training. It is the advantage to the company to apply this theory in the organization for motivation their employees. It is because the company can do something to strengthen their employees’ needs and increase the effect of the motivation. Therefore, the employees will work harder for the company. At last, it is benefit to the company in term of performance. On the other hand, the theory of needs has disadvantage as well. Every individual may has own needs toward the power, achievement and affiliation. For the examples, some people may have all of the needs; some people may only want to enjoy their work and do not have high level of needs. It is quite hard to the company to determine the needs of every employee. Therefore, the company may give the wrong reward to the employee. So that, it may not have the maximum effect of the motivation or even not motivate at all. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs The Maslow’s hierarchy of needs consist five stages which is Physiological, safety, belongingness, esteem, and self actualization. It is useful for the company in motivate their employees. It is because the hierarchy of needs is more humanistic and relevant to apply on human. The hierarchy of needs do not just mention on instinct of people but also stated that social dynamics can influence people needs. Therefore, the company can try and fulfil employees’ lower needs in order to motivate them to reach the potential of the employees. For the example, the company provides insurance to their employees for fulfilled their safety needs, so that the employees can go further stage. On the other hand, the Maslow’s hierarchy of needs has disadvantages as well. Firstly, the hierarchy of needs do not included need of know and need of beauty. This two of needs are quite important as well because some people especially ladies are very concern on beauty. Therefore, they might not follow or fit to the Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. It is one of the disadvantages. Besides, every individuals may have their own hierarchy of needs which is not the same like the Maslow’s one. Some people may look for higher needs even through the lower one have not fulfilled. Therefore, it is quite difficult for the company to get a reward system which fulfils all employees’ needs. Potential problem There are some potential problems for the company. Firstly, the company could face failure for their reward system. It is because every individual may have a unique needs hierarchy because it is strongly influence by their value. So that, those people may not follow the flow in the Maslow’s hierarchy. For the example, those people have power and achievement at the top of their value system; they may focus on status needs. Therefore, it may not applicable to all the employees in the company. Besides, employees may over depend on the reward. It means that the employees will on work hard when reward is given. It is a problem to the company because employees will not work hard for the company if reward is not given. Therefore, the company has to reward constantly in order to get better performance from their employees. It could increase the total cost of the company. When the company having financial problem and unable to give reward, the employees may exit and join other company even the competitors. As a result, the company loses their experience employees. Lastly, employees may feel stress because they think that reward is equal to responsibility. Some people only want to enjoy their job but not looking for promotion. If the company promote them to high position, they may feel stress and uncomfortable, working performance will drop as well. It is a kind of demotivation for those employees. As a result, they quit the company to change their working environment. Company Background And History Hsbc Business Essay

Wilfrid Laurier University Women Advertising and the Body Essay

Wilfrid Laurier University Women Advertising and the Body Essay.

Advertising and the Body: This is your first assignment. For this assignment, you are asked to watch the video Killing Us Softly 4 by Jean Kilbourne. After viewing the video, look through recent popular magazines, hardcopies or on the Internet, and see if you can find advertisements that objectify women in order to sell a product. Or watch some TV commercials or browse the Internet or YouTube for some current ads (from 2010 onwards). You can look for beer commercials; commercials for food, chocolate; shoes; cars; perfume; detergents or any house cleaning products, etc. Study these images (or image) in the context you have chosen (ex: Canadian, US, European etc), then write a short paper (about 2-4 pages, double spaced) about how advertising objectifies women in order to sell products, and how this objectification creates “the sexualization of culture.” Try to see if the ad constructs a representation that reflects the politics of the context in which it appears: are the objectifications reproduced in your ad also recurrent in the social-political context of the day? If yes, how can such phenomenon be explained? You might want to revisit here one of the feminist dictums “the personal is political” in order to think how to underscore the critique of your ad in the political context discussed. An ad is never just a representation of a product, or an image that is meant to entertain; it is rather a manifestation (creation, production, circulation) of a social and / or political sentiment of its time.
Please remember to use a formal academic structure: introduction, thesis, main body of argument(s) and conclusion. Any citation style is fine, as long as it is consistently and correctly used throughout the paper.
This assignment asks you to go one step further, by examining the influence of advertising on you personally and your self-worth, but also how you believe advertising affects other women and  men. Include your ad with your essay.
Wilfrid Laurier University Women Advertising and the Body Essay

Yuval Noah Harari Reading Response Questions

write my term paper Yuval Noah Harari Reading Response Questions.

Read Yuval Noah Harari’s “What Kinds Need to Know to Succeed in 2050 (Links to an external site.).”Post your individual responses below. I’d invite you to read your fellow students responses- will be interesting.1. Do a little research. Write a very brief bio of Yuval Noah Harari, and at least 3 accomplishments of the author.2. What three key quotes seem like the most important to you?3. What are the three key points of the article in your own words?4. What are the “four C’s”? Do you agree or not with the stance Harari says “pedagogical experts” are recommending to emphasize these skills? 5. Overall, what’s your perspective on Harari’s stance in this article? What resonates? What do you disagree with, have a different perspective on, or are not sure about? 6. What questions would you have for the author?
Yuval Noah Harari Reading Response Questions

Service Leadership Style in Chinese Hotel Business Essay

Current Leadership Style The ability to manage a team competently and rationally and, at the same time, not to prevent employees from realizing their professional potential is the feature that characterizes talented leaders. In my practice, I follow a democratic style because I believe that any collective that works for the achievement of a common goal cannot depend on the opinion of only one person. In our team, we maintain a collegial decision-making process and take into account the points of view of all interested parties without exception. This approach allows all the subordinates to count on mutual support and fulfill their immediate responsibilities without the fear of punishment or other negative consequences caused by temporary challenges. The democratic basis of management makes it possible to avoid conflicts and opens up prospects for self-initiative, which is a valuable feature. It is essential to note that I do not give up my leadership powers and do not seek to shift the responsibility for decision-making to subordinates. I offer my personal positions and recommendations and try to turn my employees into allies even if the method of persuasion is required for this purpose. We discuss all the emerging ideas together, but the key responsibility of the leader, in this case, lies in controlling the fulfillment of obligations and coordinating subordinates’ activities. This principle of management is approved among all our employees and serves as a valuable tool in maintaining a favorable microclimate. Conflicts in the workplace complicate the process of achieving goals and create obstacles to the realization of professional potential. Therefore, I promote the democratic idea of ​​leadership as a key approach to the organization of a cohesive and enterprising team. Based on these provisions, such a style as servant leadership may be applied to my practice. According to DeConinck, Moss, and Deconinck (2018), “servant leaders view their role as developing followers’ responsibility and autonomy,” and comprehensive commitment to work is one of the key objectives (p. 38). The leader promoting such a model of personnel control focuses on the needs of colleagues and creates a sense of community within a team. I can incorporate such a leadership style into my personal practice since a democratic type has some similarities. When interacting with subordinates, I would rely on the previously established contact because the concept of servant leadership implies trust and the absence of preconceived attitude. Also, I would strive to give priority to the needs of other people as opposed to personal benefits. To do this, one needs to be attentive to the personal experiences and worries of colleagues and notice any changes that occur in the team, including both positive and negative nuances. Perhaps the most important aspect of activity when following the model of servant leadership is responsibility. The absence of a clearly expressed authoritarian management position does not mean that a person in charge relinquishes supervisory powers. To achieve success, it is essential to ensure that personal development values ​​coincide with those promoted in the company. Service Leadership Example In the hospitality industry, customer relationship management is a significant aspect of professional practice, and maintaining an appropriate level of service is key to stable profits and market recognition. At the same time, various leadership styles may be applied depending on the preferences of executives and the situation in the team. Ling, Lin, and Wu (2016) give an example of Chinese hotel business schemes and point out that “hierarchical linear modeling” is the most common practice of working with staff and providing service (p. 341). Get your 100% original paper on any topic done in as little as 3 hours Learn More This approach is ambiguous in the context of a dynamic hospitality area where innovations and constant changes in operating modes are standard methods for attracting and retaining guests. However, such a leadership type is characterized by some aspects that distinguish it from other styles. First, a management approach based on a hierarchical leadership model has an impact on profit and business growth. As Ling et al. (2016) note, service leadership where the roles of employees are clearly distributed in accordance with job descriptions and subordination principles makes it possible to increase revenues to a greater extent than a democratic model. This factor may be explained by the fact that managers who promote a strict order compliance procedure aim at making profits as the main objective of doing business. The supporters of loyalty and servant leadership, in turn, are more focused on the quality of activities. Secondly, the combination of management practices is a more successful mechanism than adhering to exclusively one concept. Ling et al. (2016) argue that even despite strict adherence to the aforementioned hierarchical model, the heads of businesses should take into account the servant leadership principles of self-development and training when interacting with subordinates. Since the hospitality industry is characterized by increased attention to guests’ preferences and requirements, the role of combining is essential. In addition, according to Huang, Li, Qiu, Yim, and Wan (2016), assessing the needs and concerns of colleagues allows maintaining a favorable microclimate in a team and enhances corporate performance. Thus, one can note that adhering to a hierarchical management model can help increase profits. Nevertheless, in case of following this style exclusively, neither subordinates nor heads can develop professionally and show creativity and dedication when interacting with customers. Therefore, combining approaches may be a valuable strategy for planning hospitality business solutions. This example from Chinese practice may be used as valuable information about the advantages and disadvantages of following only one selected leadership model. Further, I will take into account that management based on constant interaction with subordinates and devotion to a common goal helps engage customers and make the business attractive for different clients. Also, I will be able to determine the scope of personal work, thereby contributing to employees’ initiative and their manifestation of professional potential. Hierarchical management can have advantages, but in general, with regard to the hospitality industry, satisfying guests’ preferences and needs is a key task, and appropriate customer relationship management based on servant leadership can bring more benefits. References DeConinck, J. B., Moss, H. K.,

Challenges and Human Resource Mechanisms in Multinational Companies Coursework

Introduction Multinational companies have operations in more than one country. Therefore, companies employ people from different countries and culture (Feely 2003). These companies have a culturally diverse work force. Multinational companies have subsidiaries in different countries thus have diverse work forces. Diversity is characterised by religious and cultural differences among employees (Som 2006). Human resource managers are expected to provide an environment where needs of all employees are adequately addressed. There are several challenges that face human resource specialists in multinational companies. This relates to various aspects of human resource management practice including recruitment and selection, employee training and development and performance appraisal. Therefore, multinational companies are expected to put in place mechanisms which address challenges ensuring that employees remain motivated. This contributes to the overall organisational performance and realisation of organisational objectives. The following article explores some of the challenges faced by multinational companies in human resource management practice. Similarly, human resource mechanisms addressing the above challenges shall be explored in the article. Changing Landscape of HRM and Organisational Behaviour Domain Human resource practice has evolved greatly. There are several challenges that faced personnel managers in the 1970’s and 1980’s. One of the challenges that faced personnel managers during that particular duration, before incorporation of human resource practice is reduced influence in decision making. Personnel managers input in critical organisational decisions was minimal (Caldwell 2003). This includes decisions of selection of employees where personnel managers were expected provide a breakdown of tasks associated with different positions. Also, personnel managers had decreased autonomy in decision making. Therefore, they were not in a position to significantly influence the organisational culture. Similarly, personnel managers were expected to harmonize employee and management interests (Caldwell 2003). Managers were not in a position to be highly innovative in addressing emerging employee needs. Get your 100% original paper on any topic done in as little as 3 hours Learn More However, researchers were keen on justifying the role of the human resource function in organisations. Some of the early human resource management models developed linked employee output and company strategies (Noe 2008). Under the models, emphasis was on management of employees thus ensuring that the organisation was in a position to realize strategic objectives. Furthermore, human resource management models introduced the aspects of selection, recruitment and performance appraisal as part of the human resource function. Therefore, the human resource function was entrenched in corporate culture and has become an integral part of modern firm’s organisational culture. The human resource function has greatly evolved including incorporation of technology in modern practice (Becker